Politics

In the newspaper Ha'aretz this morning they published the results of a poll taken on Monday, June 15th (the day after Netanyahu's speech) among 504 respondents with a margin of error of 4.3% The results were interesting. Only 53% of those polled had actually watched the speech. Of those who watched it, 71% agreed with what he said. (Of course this may be because the people who watched the speech were more likely to agree with him than those who did not.) When asked "Netanyahu declared in his speech that he agrees to a demilitarized Palestinian state. What do you think is the main reason he did?" only 5% said they thought it was because of true ideological change. 55% thought that it was a capitulation to American pressure. So while 71% agreed with Netanyahu and were pleased with the speech, 67% of those replied that they did not think that the speech would help advance the peace process, and 70% of the respondents replied that the did not think that a demilitarized Palestinian state would be established soon.

According to everything I have read, a large majority of Israelis liked the speech. I guess there was something in it for everyone: the left was happy to hear Netanyahu at last say he supported the idea a Palestinian state (albeit with many limits). The right was happy because he said that "natural growth" of the settlements would continue, that Jerusalem would never be divided, and the way he defined limits on a Palestinian state pretty much assures that under his leadership it won't happen. Newspaper commentators disagreed with one another; some praised and some blasted the speech, both from the right and the left.

The Palestinians loathed the speech, as you would expect. The demands made by Netanyahu, that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the homeland of the Jews, that a Palestinian state would not be allowed to make military treaties with other countries, that Jerusalem would not be its capital all made the terms completely unacceptable to them.

And what do I think? It depends on when you ask me. Sometimes I feel very hopeful; I believe (unlike most of the Israelis I have spoken to) that Obama is a friend of Israel and an ally who might be able to bring the Israelis and the Palestinians to the table. I'm also hopeful because I think that all the limitations that Netanyahu stated can be thought of as bargaining chips. Any negotiation means give and take so there needs to be terms on which there is a possibility of concession. At other times I feel hopeless; this situation has persisted now for decades and it is hard to see much willingness on either side for resolution.

I have to admit here on the blog that in the face of the events of the last few days I have moved to the right in my thinking about Iran. I agreed with Obama about the necessity of talking with the Iranians. But now I don't agree anymore. I was so hopeful about the election -- the pictures we got over CNN-International of masses of people wearing green, young people excited about the possibility of change, the huge numbers of demonstrators in green before the election -- gave me hope that a more moderate head of state in Iran might be elected. And then came the election. It would be very naive, I think, to believe the Ahmadinejad won such a sweeping victory. And the subsequent events -- the suppression of dissent, the murdering of demonstrators -- this is enough to convince me that Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on nuclearizing and that he will stop at nothing to maintain control.

Iran is perceived here in Israel as an enormous threat. Ahmadinejad has declared many times that Israel should be blown off the map, that the Holocaust never happened, that the the Zionist entity should be destroyed. Obama has stated that Iran should have civilian nuclear power. But people here look to North Korea which also was supposed to have only civilian nuclear power, and now the North Koreans are testing bombs and long-range rockets. Iran has the capability of sending missiles to Tel Aviv. And further, they will ask, what is to stop Iran from supplying nuclear weapons to terrorists???

So, especially in light of the re-election of Ahmadinejad, Israelis are happy to have a conservative in the Prime Minister's office. A large majoriey of Israelis, remember, have family histories of persecution. Their families largely came from Europe where family members who didn't leave were murdered, or from middle eastern countries where Jews were oppressed, or from the former Soviet Union where Jews were persecuted and oppressed. They have these memories in their bones. They are not about to take any chances now.


Pat